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consider the timing and degree of rate cuts after trade friction uncertainties are eased after the G20 summit, which ended last week.
Internally, US economic data that will be released in the middle of this month may cement the Fed’s determination to cut rates.上海乌托邦
Since 2011, whenever the actual US GDP growth rate exceeded the endogenous growth rate
by more than 1.5 percent, the actual figure underperformed the theoretical figure in th上海乌托邦
e next quarter. That’s because a significant departure from endogenous growth can hardly sustain.
上海乌托邦女神会所In the first quarter of this year, the actual growth rate outpaced the theoretical rate by 2.09 percent, the highest level since the fourth quarter
of 2011. If the historical pattern still works, this strong economic data could mean a sharp plunge in the second quarter.
上海乌托邦As the Fed said it will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlo
ok, disappointing economic data to be released later this month may become the last straw for the Fed t
o act. Therefore, a clear rate cut sign and path may emerge at the FOMC meeting at the end of this month after the Fed digests the data.
Secondly, the market may have forecast the timing of rate cuts earlier than the Fed’s actual plan. The rate cut window is expected to open as late as in the fourth quarter.上海乌托邦女神会所
Before the latest FOMC meeting, traders saw a more than 70-percent chance that the first rate cut will take p
lace this month, as well as a 96-percent chance that at least one rate cut will take place by the end of September.
However, this estimation may excessively go ahead of the Fed’s actual moves. We expect that the上海乌托邦女神会所
rate cut window will open in the fourth quarter, with the first cut likely to come in December or January.
Looking back in history, the average time the Fed took to switch their rate policy – or the time interval between las上海乌托邦女神会所
t rate hike and first rate cut and vice versa – has been 11.7 months since 2000, even excluding the post-2008 prolonged low-rat
e period. Based on this pattern, the rate cut is unlikely to come this month but more likely to come after September.
Besides the historical pattern that probably continues, two new factors will also delay the timing of the first rate cut.
On the one hand, the current US policy rate is the lowest among those in all the periods when the
Fed planned to start a round of rate cuts, indicating the limited room for rate cut. This makes it nec
essary to use the limited rate cut capacity at an appropriate timing, which may occur later than the market expects as
the US growth pressure will not peak this year but in 2020, according to IMF estimates.
et forces, and China has never taken any measures to deliberately devalue the currency to make its exports more at
tractive, said Guo, who is also head of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission.
According to Guo, the short-term fluctuation of the RMB exchan
ge rate was normal, and the depreciation will not last long given the stable economic growth base.
“Any speculative activities to short the RMB will suffer huge losses,” he warned.
The RMB’s daily trading reference, or the central parity for onshore trading, has been stabilized arou
nd 6.89 per dollar for eight days from May 20, and market watchers said market-oriented depreciation pressure was losing steam.
Yi Gang, the central bank governor, has said several times that the PBOC has ceased
direct intervention in foreign exchange markets, and the performance of RMB is address
s in the first four months of this year stood at 8.35 million units, a decrease of 12.12 percent compared with last year. Th
e country produced 8.39 million units during the same time, down 10.98 percent year-on-year.
New cars at a parking lot in Qingdao, Shandong province, are ready to be delivered to clients, April 30, 2019.
In April, China’s total vehicle sales fell 14.61 percent year-on-yea
r to 1.98 million units, and the output dropped by 14.45 percent to 2.05 million units.
The sales of self-owned brands passenger vehicles totaled 584,700 units last month, a decline of 27.88 percent year-on-year.
ford University in California, Singer focused on the school’s sailing program, even though the girl had no experience in the sport.
She was admitted to Stanford in 2017, but was not recruited to the sailing program.
A few weeks after their daughter’s admission, the Zhaos paid $6.5 million to Singer, who a
ppears to have kept the bulk of the money for himself. Former Stanford sailing coach John Vandemoer rec
eived only $500,000 in connection with Zhao Yusi’s admission. He has pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit racketeering.
Stanford spokesman Ernest Miranda said that a student’s admission was rescinded last month because of false
material in the application, but did not confirm the student’s identity, citing the “federal student privacy law”.
According to The Stanford Daily, the school’s independent newspaper, Zhao Yusi move
d out of her campus residence on March 30, three days before the university confirmed her expulsion.
The second-highest known payment, of $1.2 million, was also made by a Chinese family. She
rry Guo’s parents paid Singer this amount after their daughter was admitted to Yale University in late 2017.
Employees in Shanghai earn the highest monthly incomes in China, according to a report by 58 Tongcheng Recruitment Research Institute.
With an average monthly wage of 9,723 yuan ($1,447.64), Shanghai, China’s financial ce
nter, tops the country’s income rankings, the report on talent flow in quarter one said.
New first-tier city Hangzhou in East China’s Zhejiang province came in second, wi
th an average of 8,684 yuan, up 25.77 percent year-on-year – the highest growth rate.
With development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area set to begin, Gu
angzhou in South China’s Guangdong province offers the most job opportunities, up 24.95 percent year-on-year.
Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen remain job seekers’ p
referred locations, with Shenzhen most popular in the first quarter of this year, the report said.
An employment-first policy has been elevated to the status of a macro policy for the first
time in this year’s government work report, and China will pursue the policy with full force in 2